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16:15 – 17:20 |
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Richard W |
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Simon B |
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Dave G |
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Apologies: |
Chris B |
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Kit P |
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Chairman’s Acceptance of Minutes |
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Signature |
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Wednesday 21st April 2004.
Venue: The Brocklebank 16:45 – 18:00.
Dave has dates defined for the rest of 2004 when he knows that he is in Crewe so proposed that future meeting co-incide with those dates. Dave was asked to email out the dates for consideration by everyone else.
Accepted.
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Ref. |
Description & Progress |
Status |
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DG/0227/01 |
Amend club rules to raise upper limit on subscriptions from £50 to £80. 0323: Completed and the revised rules were
approved at the meeting |
COMPLETE |
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ALL/0227/02 |
Notify Chris B of any intention to revise personal subscription to the club 0323: Completed but people should continue to notify Chris of any future changes |
COMPLETE |
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RW/0227/03 |
Investigate implications of lowering market cap limit on proposed second mechanical portfolio selection criteria |
COMPLETE |
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ALL/0227/05 |
Consider Exit Criteria for 2nd mechanical portfolio so that they can be agreed upon at next meeting 0323: See item 5.2 in these minutes |
COMPLETE |
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ALL/0227/06 |
Consider Money Management thresholds from the strategy so they can be revised as necessary for the 2nd mechanical portfolio and agreed upon at next meeting 0323: See item 5.2 in these minutes |
COMPLETE |
See end of these minutes.
See separate report for detail.
Highlights/Lowlights Unit value down from 470.422 to 463.641. We have £8,217.95 of non-mechanical cash (though £6500 of this is destined for the second mech portfolio)..
No matters arising.
Non-mechanical cash was still in the “Too High” category (38% of total assets against strategic maximum of 25% - though setting up the second mech portfolio will bring this back in line) and the proportion of assets in common UK stock is in the “Too Low” category (61% against strategic minimum of 75%). Fundamental portfolio was also “Too low” (23% against strategic minimum of 25%).
A purchase for the Fundamental portfolio would address these.
No trades in the existing “value” mechanical portfolio this month.
Current holdings …
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Crest Nicholson |
HOLD until April 2004 |
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TDG |
HOLD until June 2004 |
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European Motor Holdings |
HOLD until August 2004 |
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Severfield Rowen |
HOLD until October 2004 |
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Countryside Properties |
HOLD until December 2004 |
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Wagon |
HOLD until February 2005 |
Focus of discussion was on the creation of the new “growth” mechanical portfolio.
All selection criteria had been agreed in advance by email except for the cutoff for market cap. The meeting decided to use 0.01*Allshare cap as the minimum necessary market cap.
Simon provided his weightings at the meeting so that just left Kit to provide them. It was agreed to leave action ALL/0227/04 open until Kit provided his weightings but to make the first purchase tomorrow using the weightings supplied so far. Richard had run the selections prior to the meeting (i.e. not having Simon’s weightings) and Horizon had come out top but this may change once Simon’s weightings were incorporated (Somerfield and Galliford Try are in the running for selection so the revised weightings may change what is actually picked). Purchase should be based on an additional £6500 being transferred into the mechanical portfolio.
Exit criteria for this new portfolio was then discussed and four possibilities were considered:-
a) Hold for 12 months
b) Hold until a predefined target price is reached (say 50% gain from purchase) then run a tight stop loss (say 10%) OR sell after 12 months if target price has not yet been reached
c) As (b) but holding for a least 12 months
d) As (b) but with a 20% stop loss tightening to 10% once held beyond 12 months
Meeting decided on option c) with the target defined to be 150% of purchase price and with the stop loss defined to be 15% of purchase price in pence (i.e. the stop loss is a constant pence value as the stock rises through the high rather than a constant % value).
It was agreed that as candidate selections would be made available for discussion prior to club meetings, we should examine the spread and liquidity of those candidates and only purchase if we were happy with the spread/liquidity. A quick run through the current candidates did not cause any concerns in this regard for this month.
A short discussion then took place on the Money Management section in the strategy and it was agreed to revise the existing 25%-50% thresholds on the Mechanical Portfolio to 40%-70%. Forcing diversification across sectors within this new portfolio was considered but the meeting decided against imposing a constraint that limited the number of purchases within sectors…..subject to the club’s overall limit in any one sector not exceeding the current 40% limit.
Dave to update Strategy document.
Richard to apply Simon’s weightings and make first purchase.
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CodaSciSys |
HOLD – Review in May 2004 (see table in 5.5 below) |
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Mothercare |
HOLD – Not yet met sell criteria (see table in 5.5 below) |
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ISG |
HOLD – Not yet met sell criteria (see table in 5.5 below). A short review of ISG took place as it had now been held for 6 months (and buy proposal suggested a review after 6 months). It was agreed that the price had not risen sufficiently to justify changing the stop loss but that we should hold for another 6 months and review then. |
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WH Smith |
HOLD – Not yet met sell criteria (see table in 5.5 below) |
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Parity |
HOLD – not worth selling |
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Atlantic Caspian |
HOLD (especially as it’s delisted !!) |
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Templeton Emerging |
HOLD – not worth selling but look to sell if opportunity arises as the warrants expire in September 2004 |
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Cape |
HOLD – Not yet met sell criteria (see table in 5.5 below) |
The following is the summary of sell criteria for each stock held within the Speculative or Fundamental portfolios (the Mechanical holdings are dealt with as part of section 5.2 above). The stop loss is invoked against the “end of day” price, but the sell decision may wait for the opening price to avoid rogue trades at the end of day.
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Stock |
Reportee |
“High”
Price |
Stop
Loss (based on the “high”) |
Exit
Criteria |
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CSY |
Richard |
400 |
200p |
Hold until at least May 04 and then review; In addition, review following any trading or results statement that expects / reports a fall in either revenues or profits over the previous reporting period; Trailing stop loss of 50% to start from purchase price (based on mid-price due to large spread). |
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MTC |
Dave |
383 |
325.55p |
15% trailing stop loss switching to a 40p trailing stop loss once share price goes above 400p |
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ISG |
Richard |
193.5 |
96.75p |
Hold for 12 months (September 2004) then review. Before then, run trailing stop loss of 50% to start from purchase price |
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SMWH |
Simon |
280 |
250p |
A mandatory vote on reaching 250p on the downside and on reaching 350p on the upside. |
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CAPE |
N/A (speculative) |
77.5 |
62p |
20% trailing stop loss |
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PTY |
N/A (speculative) |
88 |
22p |
Revise on taking up the rights offer. Existing criteria are “Start price 44p. Invoke 15% trailing stop loss once price has doubled, or sell if price falls 50% from purchase (unless not worth selling)” |
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ACA |
N/A (speculative) |
20.4 |
5p |
Start price 10.2p. Invoke 15% trailing stop loss once price has doubled, or sell if price falls 50% from purchase (unless not worth selling) |
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TEMA |
N/A (speculative) |
57 |
14.25p |
Look for opportunities to sell (though currently not worth selling) as the warrants expire within a year. |
None
This month's winner is Adrian – the only person to be in profit on the month. The overall winner is Simon with an excellent with an impressive 47.7% gain over the six months. Does anyone have the pot llama to pass to Simon????
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Simon |
£147,720.53 |
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Dave |
£143,662.08 |
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Adrian |
£129,925.96 |
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Chris |
£116,927.14 |
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Richard |
£116,381.41 |
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Kit |
£100,000.00 |
Our entry for February was MMO2 (OOM) which actually was the best performer too but we didn’t win so our tie-breaker mustn’t have been good enough. Our entry for March is ITV (ITV
Adrian asked whether or not we have entered the Barclay’s competition for best performing Club. Dave to ask Chris B whether he submitted the form.
Actions carried forward to next meeting
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Ref. |
Description & Progress |
Target Date |
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SB/0716/01 |
Issue chairman’s annual statement via email 0820: No progress 0919: No progress 1022: No progress 1121: No progress 1219: No progress 0123: No progress 0227: No progress 0323: No progress |
21/04/2004 |
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DG&KP/0716/06 |
Contact Adrian B about the tape of the Radio Stoke appearance 0820: No progress 0919: DG has just sent mail to Adrian 1022: Adrian B has the tape – he has said that he will pass it on to
Chris or Kit (though Dave has given him his home address so he could post it
there) 1121: No progress – Dave to remind Adrian 1219: Kit thinks that Adrian may have given the tape to him – he will
check 0123: Kit to contact Adrian B 0227: Kit does have the tape.
Just needs passing to Dave G 0323: No further progress |
21/04/2004 |
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KP/1219/02 |
Check to see whether you have a copy (electronic or hardcopy) of the minutes that are missing from the Website. These are December 2000, August 2001, March 2002, April 2002, May 2002 0123: Nobody could find any electronic copies of the minutes so KP to dig out th |